Miami “crash risk” headlines: what the data actually says

UBS’s 2025 Global Real Estate Bubble Index ranks Miami No. 1 for bubble risk, ahead of Tokyo and Zurich. Scores above 1.5 indicate “high risk”; Miami’s is ~1.73. The index flags stretched price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios after outsized gains since 2020.

Important context

• The UBS index is a risk gauge, not a timing call. It says vulnerabilities are elevated—but doesn’t predict an immediate drop. UBS also notes long-run tailwinds (coastal/tax advantages, ongoing migration). United States of America

• Local splits matter: $1M+ condos have been comparatively resilient, even as broader sales slowed on rates/insurance. August: Miami-Dade condo sales down 13% YoY, but $1M+ condo transactions up ~11% YoY; inventory is normalizing. MIAMI

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What this means for IPE buyers

• Selectivity over fear. In riskier phases, liquidity concentrates in new, design-led, move-in-ready product in prime areas.

• Design is defense. Intelligent floorplans, light/air quality, privacy, and indoor-outdoor flow preserve relative value when markets get choosy. (This is where we build.)

• Plan your timeline. If you target a 2026–27 move-in, aligning lot selection + pre-construction now de-risks execution should lending/insurance tighten.

  
  

Bottom lineTreat “crash” stories as a prompt to be more selective, not still. In Miami, quality, location, and execution remain the best risk management.